Gold demand loses its shine


Not everyone seems to be going for gold in Q2 2026. According to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report, gold is coming back to earth after record-high prices, with demand flat year on year at 1,269t.

Despite gold demand flattening in Q2, jewellery demand value was resilient, rising 22% year-on-year. Image credit: Antonio Barella, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

This pushed H1 demand 2% higher year-on-year to an estimated 2,522t worth $380bn.

Higher they rise

Investment in gold ETFs, bars and coins fell to 262t in Q2, as the lower gold price tempered the strong momentum seen earlier in the year.

The decline was primarily driven by 45t of outflows from gold-backed ETFs in Q2, although first-half ETF demand remained modestly positive at 18t.

Bar and coin investment was relatively stable, down just 3% year on year in Q2, while first-half demand was still 21% higher than at this point last year, supported by an exceptional first quarter.

On the other hand, demand in the OTC market, supported by Asian investment, came in at 327t in Q2 and a healthy 571t in H1.

Central banks and other official institutions added a net 289t to reserves in Q2, up 62% year on year, as buying picked up across several markets.

Despite a stronger second quarter, first-half demand remained below the elevated levels seen in recent years, reflecting weaker Q1 activity.

Shift

The WGC’s Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found that 45% of respondents intend to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months, highlighting gold’s enduring importance in official reserves.

High prices continued to weigh on jewellery demand in Q2, with demand down 17% year-on-year as consumers bought less gold and shifted towards lighter products.

This pulled first-half volumes lower, but jewellery demand value was resilient, rising 22% year-on-year in H1 to a global total of $86bn.

Second-quarter total gold supply was unchanged year on year at 1,269t, as mine production and recycling diverged.

Mine supply rose by an estimated 2% year on year to 966t, supported by new production from Canada and Chile.

At the same time, recycling fell 6% year on year despite higher prices.

Correction from record highs

WGC senior markets analyst Louise Street said: “Gold’s early-year rally reversed in the second quarter, with prices consolidating after correcting from record highs.

“But the market remained well supported, reflecting gold’s established role as a diversifier and store of value.

“While gold ETF flows receded in step with prices, continued central bank buying and growth in OTC investment contributed to total gold demand edging 2% higher across the first half of the year.

“For the second half of 2026, investment is likely to drive growth; however, the demand mix could shift.

“OTC activity and demand from Asian investors are expected to play an increasingly prominent role, while Western gold ETF interest may be more closely linked to real yields, US monetary policy expectations and the dollar.

“Central banks will remain significant buyers, albeit at a slightly slower pace than we’ve seen over the last four years.

“High prices will keep pressure on jewellery volumes, though consumers may continue to hold rather than sell, with recycling showing little sign of increasing.”



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